{"id":140,"date":"2020-03-27T03:27:50","date_gmt":"2020-03-27T03:27:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kukan-joho.plus\/?p=140"},"modified":"2026-03-09T15:45:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T06:45:07","slug":"sir-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/?p=140","title":{"rendered":"\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u6d41\u884c\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb SIR\uff5c\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u62e1\u5927\u304c\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u3067\u6df1\u523b\u306a\u72b6\u6cc1\u3092\u5f15\u304d\u8d77\u3053\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u6d41\u884c\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u3054\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u306f18\u4e16\u7d00\u3001\u6570\u5b66\u8005\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u30fb\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\uff081700-1782\uff09\u306b\u307e\u3067\u9061\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_82_2 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">\u76ee\u6b21<\/p>\n<label 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>1905\u5e74\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u30fb\u30dc\u30f3\u30d9\u30a4\u3067\u306e\u30da\u30b9\u30c8\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u306e\u969b\u306bSIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u9069\u7528<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/?p=140\/#%E3%81%AA%E3%81%9C%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%81%8C%E5%BE%AE%E5%88%86%E6%96%B9%E7%A8%8B%E5%BC%8F%E3%81%A7%E8%A1%A8%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E3%81%AE%E3%81%8B%EF%BC%9F\" >\u306a\u305c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3067\u8868\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/?p=140\/#%E6%9B%B8%E7%B1%8D%E7%B4%B9%E4%BB%8B\" >\u66f8\u7c4d\u7d39\u4ecb<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/?p=140\/#%E3%83%93%E3%82%B8%E3%83%A5%E3%82%A2%E3%83%AB_%E3%83%91%E3%83%B3%E3%83%87%E3%83%9F%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF%E3%83%BB%E3%83%9E%E3%83%83%E3%83%97\" >\u30d3\u30b8\u30e5\u30a2\u30eb \u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u30fb\u30de\u30c3\u30d7<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/?p=140\/#%E3%83%87%E3%83%BC%E3%82%BF%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%AE%E3%81%9F%E3%82%81%E3%81%AE%E6%95%B0%E7%90%86%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%80%80_%E6%9C%AC%E8%B3%AA%E3%82%92%E3%81%A8%E3%82%89%E3%81%88%E3%81%9F%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E3%81%AE%E3%81%9F%E3%82%81%E3%81%AB\" >\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u5206\u6790\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306e\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3000 \u672c\u8cea\u3092\u3068\u3089\u3048\u305f\u5206\u6790\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306b<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E3%83%80%E3%83%8B%E3%82%A8%E3%83%AB%E3%83%BB%E3%83%99%E3%83%AB%E3%83%8C%E3%83%BC%E3%82%A4\"><\/span>\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u30fb\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u7236\u304c\u6570\u5b66\u8005\u30e8\u30cf\u30f3\u30fb\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\uff081667-1748\uff09\u3001\u4f2f\u7236\u304c\u6570\u5b66\u8005\u30e4\u30b3\u30d6\u30fb\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\uff081654-1705\uff09\u3001\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u306e\u5144\u5f1f\u3082\u307f\u306a\u6570\u5b66\u8005\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\u5bb6\u306b1700\u5e742\u67088\u65e5\u306b\u751f\u307e\u308c\u305f\u306e\u304c\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>13\u6b73\u3067\u30b9\u30a4\u30b9\u30fb\u30d0\u30fc\u30bc\u30eb\u5927\u5b66\u306b\u5165\u5b66\u300116\u6b73\u3067\u4fee\u58eb\u53f7\u3092\u53d6\u5f97\u3059\u308b\u3082\u3001\u7236\u30e8\u30cf\u30f3\u306e\u53cd\u5bfe\u3067\u6570\u5b66\u306e\u9053\u306b\u9032\u3080\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u305a\u3001\u533b\u5b66\u3092\u5b66\u3073\u547c\u5438\u306e\u30e1\u30ab\u30cb\u30ba\u30e0\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u3067\u535a\u58eb\u53f7\u3092\u3068\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u306e\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\u306e\u5b9a\u7406\uff081738\u5e74\uff09\u3067\u6709\u540d\u306a\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u30fb\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\u306f\u6570\u5b66\u8005\u3068\u3057\u3066\u77e5\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5b9f\u306f\u65e9\u3044\u6bb5\u968e\u304b\u3089\u533b\u5b66\u3068\u306e\u63a5\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d50\u679c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6570\u5b66\u8005\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u5bfe\u8c61\u306f\u3001\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u751f\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u690d\u7269\u5b66\u3001\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u3001\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u3001\u6d41\u4f53\u529b\u5b66\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u5b66\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u3068\u591a\u5c90\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u306f\u5929\u7136\u75d8\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u306e\u5bff\u547d\u3078\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u7814\u7a76\u8ad6\u6587\uff081760\u5e74\uff09\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u8ff0\u3079\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>But perhaps we will attain more surely the end that we propose, if we add here an evaluation of the ravage of natural smallpox, &amp; of that which one can gain in procuring it artificially.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span style=\"font-size: 70%;\">\u3010\u51fa\u5178\u3011\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u30fb\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8ad6\u6587\uff081760\u5e74\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-147 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020-p\/03\/20200327_1.jpg\" alt=\"\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u30fb\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\" width=\"268\" height=\"315\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Daniel Bernoulli\uff081700-1782\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u306b\u300csmallpox\uff08\u5929\u7136\u75d8\uff09\u306eravage\uff08\u640d\u5bb3\uff09\u306eevaluation\uff08\u8a55\u4fa1\uff09\u300d\u3068\u3042\u308b\u306e\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d00\u5143\u524d1100\u5e74\u9803\u306e\u5929\u7136\u75d8\u306e\u8a18\u9332\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304b\u3089\u3059\u308b\u3068\u300120\u4e16\u7d00\u307e\u3067\u4e09\u5343\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4eba\u985e\u306f\u5929\u7136\u75d8\u3068\u95d8\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305f\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>WHO\uff08\u4e16\u754c\u4fdd\u5065\u6a5f\u95a2\uff09\u304c\u5730\u7403\u4e0a\u304b\u3089\u306e\u5929\u7136\u75d8\u7d76\u6ec5\u5ba3\u8a00\u3092\u767a\u8868\u3057\u305f\u306e\u304c1980\u5e745\u67088\u65e5\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"SIR%E6%95%B0%E7%90%86%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB\"><\/span>SIR\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>1927\u5e74\u3001\u751f\u5316\u5b66\u8005\u30b1\u30eb\u30de\u30c3\u30af\uff081898-1970\uff09\u3068\u8ecd\u533b\u30fb\u75ab\u5b66\u8005\u30de\u30c3\u30b1\u30f3\u30c9\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\uff081876-1943\uff09\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u753b\u671f\u7684\u306a\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u6d41\u884c\u306e\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30ebSIR\u304c\u767a\u8868\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>SIR\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u65b0\u578b\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u75c7\u306e\u305f\u3081\u514d\u75ab\u3092\u6301\u3064\u4eba\u306f\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068<\/li>\n<li>\u5916\u90e8\u306e\u90fd\u5e02\u3068\u306e\u9593\u3067\u4eba\u53e3\u79fb\u52d5\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068<\/li>\n<li>\u4eba\u53e3\u306f\u5bc6\u96c6\u3057\u4e0d\u7279\u5b9a\u591a\u6570\u306e\u4eba\u3068\u306e\u63a5\u89e6\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068<\/li>\n<li>\u30da\u30b9\u30c8\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6025\u901f\u304b\u3064\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u6d41\u884c<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E8%A8%88%E7%AE%97%E6%96%B9%E6%B3%95\"><\/span>\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u307e\u305a\u96c6\u56e3\u30923\u3064\u306b\u5206\u985e\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\">\n<li>\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff08Susceptable)<\/li>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff08Infected\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u5f8c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3082\u3057\u304f\u306f\u56de\u5fa9\u306b\u3088\u308b\u514d\u75ab\u3092\u7372\u5f97\u3057\u305f\u8005\uff08Recovered\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u982d\u6587\u5b57\u3092\u6642\u523bt\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u4eba\u6570\u3092S=S(t)\u3001I=I(t)\u3001R=R(t)\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u304cSIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u547c\u3070\u308c\u308b\u6240\u4ee5\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u3053\u308c\u30893\u5909\u6570\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3067\u8868\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-153 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020-p\/03\/20200327_5.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"344\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%AC%AC1%E5%BC%8F%E3%81%AE%E5%BE%AE%E5%88%86%E6%96%B9%E7%A8%8B%E5%BC%8F\"><\/span>\u7b2c1\u5f0f\u306e\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u5de6\u8fbadS\/dt\u306f\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6570S\u306e\u6642\u9593\u5909\u5316\u7387\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/?p=4770\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5fae\u5206<\/a>\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u3068\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u306e\u63a5\u89e6\u306b\u3088\u308a\u611f\u67d3\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u63a5\u89e6\u7387\u306f\u4e21\u8005\u306e\u4eba\u6570\u306e\u7a4dSI\u306b\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u96c6\u56e3\u5185\u3067\u306f\u30011\u4eba\u304c\u6bce\u65e5\u63a5\u89e6\u3059\u308b\u4eba\u6570\u3092\u5e73\u5747m\u4eba\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u306e\u63a5\u89e6\u6bce\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u304c\u751f\u3058\u308b1\u65e5\u3042\u305f\u308a\u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3092p\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u03b2=mp\/N\u3002\u523b\u3005\u3068\u611f\u67d3\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u3068\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u53e3S\u306f\u6e1b\u5c11\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%AC%AC3%E5%BC%8F%E3%81%AE%E5%BE%AE%E5%88%86%E6%96%B9%E7%A8%8B\"><\/span>\u7b2c3\u5f0f\u306e\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u5de6\u8fbadR\/dt\u306f\u56de\u5fa9\u8005\u6570R\u306e\u6642\u9593\u5909\u5316\u7387\uff08<a href=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/?p=4770\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5fae\u5206<\/a>\uff09\u3002\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c\u4e00\u5b9a\u306e\u901f\u5ea6\u03b3\u3067\u56de\u5fa9\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u523b\u3005\u3068\u56de\u5fa9\u3059\u308b\u4eba\u304c\u5897\u52a0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304d\u307e\u3059\u30021\/\u03b3\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u671f\u9593\u304c\u6307\u6570\u5b87\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u5f93\u3046\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3092\u8868\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E7%AC%AC2%E5%BC%8F%E3%81%AE%E5%BE%AE%E5%88%86%E6%96%B9%E7%A8%8B%E5%BC%8F\"><\/span>\u7b2c2\u5f0f\u306e\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u7dcf\u4eba\u53e3N=S+I+R<\/p>\n<p>\u306f\u5b9a\u6570\u3067\u3059\u304b\u3089\u3001\u6642\u9593\u5fae\u5206\u306f0\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">0=dS\/dt+dI\/dt+dR\/dt<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u3068\u7b2c1\u5f0f\u3001\u7b2c3\u5f0f\u304b\u3089\u7b2c2\u5f0f\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"SIR%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B7%E3%83%9F%E3%83%A5%E3%83%AC%E3%83%BC%E3%82%B7%E3%83%A7%E3%83%B3\"><\/span>SIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u521d\u671f\u6761\u4ef6\u306e\u3082\u3068\u3001SIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u30b3\u30f3\u30d4\u30e5\u30fc\u30bf\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3092\u884c\u3063\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u7dcf\u4eba\u53e3N=1000\u4e07\u4eba<\/li>\n<li>\u521d\u671f\u611f\u67d3\u8005I(0)=100\u4eba\uff08S(0)=10000000-100\u3001R(0)=0\uff09<\/li>\n<li>1\u65e51\u4eba\u3042\u305f\u308a\u5e73\u574710\u4eba\u306b\u63a5\u89e6\uff08m=10\uff09\u3001\u63a5\u89e6\u6bce\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u304c\u751f\u3058\u308b1\u65e5\u3042\u305f\u308a\u306e\u78ba\u7387p=0.02\uff08\u611f\u67d3\u7387\u03b2=10\u00d70.02\/N\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u306e\u56de\u5fa9\u65e5\u6570\u309214\u65e5\uff08\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\u03b3=1\/14=0.071\u2026\uff09<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-145 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020-p\/03\/20200327_3.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"344\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u304b\u3089\u4ee5\u4e0b\u304c\u8aad\u307f\u3068\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u4eba\u6570\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u306f\u7dcf\u4eba\u53e3\u306e1\/3\u5f31<\/li>\n<li>\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306b9\u5272\u4ee5\u4e0a\u304c\u611f\u67d3\u3059\u308b\uff08S:\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6570\u304c200\u65e5\u4ee5\u5f8c10%\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304b\u3089\uff09<\/li>\n<li>\u7d42\u606f\u307e\u3067\u306b\u306f200\u65e5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u304b\u304b\u308b<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E5%86%8D%E7%94%9F%E7%94%A3%E6%95%B0\"><\/span>\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>SIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3059\u308b\u3068\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u6d41\u884c\u306e\u767a\u751f\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u5c0e\u304b\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">R<sub>0<\/sub>=\u03b2N\/\u03b3<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u03b2\uff08\u611f\u67d3\u7387\uff09\u3001\u03b3\uff08\u56de\u5fa9\u7387\uff09\u3001\u7dcf\u4eba\u53e3N<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306eR<sub>0<\/sub>\u304c\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u6570\uff08basic reproduction number\uff09\u3068\u547c\u3070\u308c\u308b\u6307\u6a19\u3067\u3059\u30021\u4eba\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c\u518d\u751f\u7523\u3059\u308b\u4e8c\u6b21\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u6570\u3092\u8868\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u3001<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">R<sub>0<\/sub>&gt;1\uff08\u95be\u5024\u6761\u4ef6\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u521d\u671f\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6570\u306f\u6307\u6570\u95a2\u6570\u7684\u306b\u5897\u5927\u3057\u3001<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">R<sub>0<\/sub>&lt;1<\/p>\n<p>\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u611f\u67d3\u6d41\u884c\u306f\u767a\u751f\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>SIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u95be\u5024\u6761\u4ef6\u304c\u6e80\u305f\u3055\u308c\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u6570\u306f1\u56de\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3092\u3082\u3064\u611f\u67d3\u6d41\u884c\u304c\u3046\u307e\u308c\u3001\u3084\u304c\u3066\u81ea\u7136\u306b\u7d42\u606f\u3057\u3001\u3057\u304b\u3082\u5168\u304f\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u306a\u3044\u672a\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u304c\u4e00\u5b9a\u6570\u6b8b\u308b\u6319\u52d5\u3092\u793a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1905%E5%B9%B4%E3%80%81%E3%82%A4%E3%83%B3%E3%83%89%E3%83%BB%E3%83%9C%E3%83%B3%E3%83%99%E3%82%A4%E3%81%A7%E3%81%AE%E3%83%9A%E3%82%B9%E3%83%88%E5%A4%A7%E6%B5%81%E8%A1%8C%E3%81%AE%E9%9A%9B%E3%81%ABSIR%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%82%92%E9%81%A9%E7%94%A8\"><\/span>1905\u5e74\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u30fb\u30dc\u30f3\u30d9\u30a4\u3067\u306e\u30da\u30b9\u30c8\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u306e\u969b\u306bSIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u9069\u7528<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u30b1\u30eb\u30de\u30c3\u30af\u3068\u30de\u30c3\u30b1\u30f3\u30c9\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306fSIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u4e8b\u4f8b\u306b\u9069\u7528\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u308c\u304c\u30a4\u30f3\u30c9\u30fb\u30dc\u30f3\u30d9\u30a4\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b1905\uff5e1906\u5e74\u306e\u30da\u30b9\u30c8\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>SIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u30da\u30b9\u30c8\u6d41\u884c\u306e\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u4e00\u81f4\u3055\u305b\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u6d41\u884c\u304c\u306a\u305c\u81ea\u7136\u7d42\u606f\u3059\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5f53\u6642\u306e\u7591\u554f\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u30821\u3064\u306e\u89e3\u7b54\u3092\u4e0e\u3048\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-146 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/club.informatix.co.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020-p\/03\/20200327_4.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"511\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 70%;\">\u3010\u51fa\u5178\u3011W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick, \u201cA Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics,\u201dProc. Roy. Soc. of London. Series A, Vol. 115, No. 772 (Aug. 1, 1927), pp. 700-721<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E3%81%AA%E3%81%9C%E3%83%A2%E3%83%87%E3%83%AB%E3%81%8C%E5%BE%AE%E5%88%86%E6%96%B9%E7%A8%8B%E5%BC%8F%E3%81%A7%E8%A1%A8%E3%81%95%E3%82%8C%E3%82%8B%E3%81%AE%E3%81%8B%EF%BC%9F\"><\/span>\u306a\u305c\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u304c\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3067\u8868\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>\u82f1\u56fd\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u8005\u30de\u30eb\u30b5\u30b9\uff081766-1834\uff09\u306f\u30011798\u5e74\u306b\u8ad6\u6587\u300c\u4eba\u53e3\u8ad6\u300d\u3092\u767a\u8868\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u5c55\u958b\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30a2\u30a4\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u300c\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3067\u3042\u3089\u308f\u3055\u308c\u308b\u6570\u5b66\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u306e\u539f\u70b9\u3068\u3044\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30de\u30eb\u30b5\u30b9\u306e\u4eba\u53e3\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u89e3\u3051\u308b1\u968e\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4eba\u9593\u306f\u4e00\u4eba\u4e00\u4eba\u96e2\u6563\u7684\u306a\u5b58\u5728\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u304c\u5341\u5206\u306b\u5927\u304d\u3044\u5834\u5408\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5909\u52d5\u306f\u9023\u7d9a\u7684\u3068\u307f\u306a\u3059\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u3092\u9023\u7d9a\u91cf\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6271\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u4eba\u53e3\u3092\u6642\u9593\u3067\u5fae\u5206\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff08\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\u7a4d\u5206\u3082\u53ef\u80fd\uff09\u308f\u3051\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>200\u5e74\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308a\u6b27\u7c73\u3067\u306f\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u793e\u4f1a\u554f\u984c \u2500\u2500 \u533b\u5b66\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u5b66\u30fb\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u30fb\u751f\u7406\u5b66\u30fb\u30ed\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u5de5\u5b66\u30fb\u82b8\u8853\u30fb\u8ecd\u4e8b \u2500\u2500 \u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u300c\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u3067\u3042\u3089\u308f\u3055\u308c\u308b\u6570\u5b66\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u300d\u3092\u5c55\u958b\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u304c\u554f\u984c\u89e3\u6c7a\u306b\u8ca2\u732e\u3057\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u56de\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u305fSIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u8003\u6848\u8005\u30b1\u30eb\u30de\u30c3\u30af\u3068\u30de\u30c3\u30b1\u30f3\u30c9\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3082\u30b9\u30b3\u30c3\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>300\u5e74\u524d\u306e\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u30fb\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\u304cSIR\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u898b\u308c\u3070\u3001\u5373\u5ea7\u306b\u7406\u89e3\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u300c\u3053\u3093\u306a\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306a\u3089\u79c1\u3067\u3082\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u306a\u305c\u306a\u3089\u3001\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u304c\u77e5\u308b\u89e3\u6790\u5b66 \u2500\u2500 \u5fae\u5206\u3068\u7a4d\u5206\u306e\u8a00\u8449\u3067\u8a9e\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3057\u304b\u3057\u305d\u306e\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u3067\u3082\u3001\u9023\u7acb\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u304c\u30b3\u30f3\u30d4\u30e5\u30fc\u30bf\u3067\u89e3\u304b\u308c\u308b\u98a8\u666f\u3092\u898b\u305f\u3089\u9a5a\u5606\u306e\u58f0\u3092\u3042\u3052\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\u300c\u3053\u306e\u9023\u7acb\u5fae\u5206\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u304c\u89e3\u3051\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff01\u300d<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E6%9B%B8%E7%B1%8D%E7%B4%B9%E4%BB%8B\"><\/span>\u66f8\u7c4d\u7d39\u4ecb<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"%E3%83%93%E3%82%B8%E3%83%A5%E3%82%A2%E3%83%AB_%E3%83%91%E3%83%B3%E3%83%87%E3%83%9F%E3%83%83%E3%82%AF%E3%83%BB%E3%83%9E%E3%83%83%E3%83%97\"><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/33mzUjg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u30d3\u30b8\u30e5\u30a2\u30eb \u30d1\u30f3\u30c7\u30df\u30c3\u30af\u30fb\u30de\u30c3\u30d7<\/a><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>\u672c\u66f8\u3067\u306f\u30b3\u30ec\u30e9\u3001\u5929\u7136\u75d8\u3001\u30a8\u30dc\u30e9\u51fa\u8840\u71b1\u3001SARS\u306a\u3069\u3001\u3053\u308c\u307e\u3067\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u3057\u305f\u4f1d\u67d3\u75c5\u3092\u89e3\u8aac\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f53\u6642\u306e\u30a4\u30e9\u30b9\u30c8\u3084\u5199\u771f\u3001\u6700\u65b0\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u3082\u3068\u306b\u611f\u67d3\u7d4c\u8def\u3084\u7d42\u606f\u4f8b\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u5730\u57df\u306a\u3069\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u5730\u56f3\u5316\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none; 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margin: 0px;\" src=\"https:\/\/ir-jp.amazon-adsystem.com\/e\/ir?t=ifxmarketing-22&amp;language=ja_JP&amp;l=li3&amp;o=9&amp;a=4802612494\" alt=\"\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" border=\"0\" \/><p class=\" st-mybtn st-btn-default\" style=\"background:#3170b9; background: linear-gradient(to bottom, #3170b9, #3170b9);border-color:#3170b9;border-width:1px;border-radius:5px;font-weight:bold;color:#fff;\"><a style=\"font-weight:bold;color:#fff;\" href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3flyR5q\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">\u3053\u306e\u672c\u3092\u8a73\u3057\u304f\u307f\u308b<i class=\"st-fa fa-after st-svg-angle-right st-css-no\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i><\/a><\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u73fe\u5728\u3001\u65b0\u578b\u30b3\u30ed\u30ca\u30a6\u30a4\u30eb\u30b9\u306e\u611f\u67d3\u62e1\u5927\u304c\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u3067\u6df1\u523b\u306a\u72b6\u6cc1\u3092\u5f15\u304d\u8d77\u3053\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4eca\u56de\u306f\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u6d41\u884c\u4e88\u6e2c\u306b\u7528\u3044\u3089\u308c\u308b\u6570\u7406\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u3054\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u305d\u306e\u7814\u7a76\u306f18\u4e16\u7d00\u3001\u6570\u5b66\u8005\u30c0\u30cb\u30a8\u30eb\u30fb\u30d9\u30eb\u30cc\u30fc\u30a4\uff081700-178 &#8230; 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